In contrast, optimism bias tends to subside when the problem is perceived as relatively prevalent, such as divorce, tooth decay, or disappointing performance in a job interview. That is, optimism bias is especially pronounced when the problem is perceived as infrequent, such as becoming bankrupt, being sued, experiencing a nervous breakdown, being involved in a car accident. Optimism bias tends to be amplified when the risky event transpires infrequently (see Harris, Griffin, & Murray, 2008 Price, Pentecost, & Voth, 2002). Antecedents of optimism bias: Characteristics of the risk Perceived frequency of events and egocentric biases Accordingly, the indirect approach seems to be more informative and is often recommended (e.g., Weinstein & Klein, 1996l for further discussion on methods, see Covey & Davies, 2004). Instead, the direct method primarily reflects the perceived likelihood that individuals themselves are susceptible to some risk (see Aucote & Gold, 2005 Chambers, Windschitl, & Suls, 2003 Kruger & Burrus, 2004). Recent studies show the direct method does not correlate highly with the perceived likelihood that other individuals are susceptible to some risk. The difference between these two estimates is then calculated, called the indirect method. In a separate question, they are asked to estimate the likelihood that other individuals might experience some adverse event.
Second, in some studies, participants are instructed to estimate the likelihood they might experience some adverse event. This procedure, called the direct approach, tends to demonstrate that participants feel they are less likely, on average, to experience adverse events than are other individuals. First, in some studies, participants are explicitly instructed to rate the likelihood they will experience some adverse event, such as a snake bite, relative to other individuals-usually on scales ranging from "much less likely" to "much more likely". Two main approaches are applied to assess optimism bias. Individuals tend to feel they are less vulnerable to environmental degradation and problems, such as air pollution, than peers (Hatfield & Job, 2000). Students tend to overestimate their capacity to pay debts relative to their peers (Seaward & Kemp, 2000).
UNREALISTIC OPTIMISM REGRESSION DRIVER
Motorists tend to feel they are less likely to be involved in a car accident than is the average driver (Dalziel & Job, 1997). For example, smokers tend to feel they are less likely than other individuals who smoke to be afflicted with lung cancer (Windschitl, 2002 also see Weinstein, Slovic, Gibson, & Waters, 2004).
Optimism bias has been uncovered in a vast range of settings. When individuals feel anxious or unconfident, for instance, optimism bias tends to diminish. Research has uncovered several factors that amplify or inhibit the probability that individuals will underestimate some risk. They might not, for example, wear seatbelts. As a consequence of this bias, some individuals might disregard precautions that might curb these risks.
UNREALISTIC OPTIMISM REGRESSION SKIN
Optimism bias, originally referred to as unrealistic optimism (Weinstein, 1980), is the tendency of individuals to underestimate the likelihood they will experience adverse events, such as skin cancer or car accidents.
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